When will it be over?

Reader's digest polled it's readers with the following question: "When will you feel like the recession will be over?"

Various responses came in, and I wanted to blog my own answer and get yours....

I will feel the recession is over when paying bills on time becomes the norm and not the exception for everyone I talk to.

I will feel it is over when all the stay at home moms I know aren't scurrying to find jobs.

I will feel it is over when the small business owners I know can afford to hire people again. (you would not believe the number of jobs I have seen become extinct just from the people I know!)

I will feel it is over when stores, gas stations, and other businesses dare to raise prices again.

I will feel it is over when the number of divorces I am personally seeing begins to decline.

I will feel it is over when people once again feel comfortable enough to complain about their boss.

And what I feel is a true indicator of a recovering economy:

anyone that knows me well, knows that I am a recovering "housing market addict" ...for the sake of my housework getting done I stopped following housing market data closely a few years ago, but definately like to keep my eye on it from a distance..especially now.

If you look at National average of home prices since 1930, you can see some important info:

1930: $7145.00
1940: $3920.00
1950: $8450.00
1960: $12,700.00
1970: $$23,000.00
1980: $68,714.00
1990: $123,000.00
2000: $200,300.00
2007: $299,100.00
2009: $258,000.00 (2nd Q)

you see the depression from the 30's to 40's, then you see substantial growth all the way to the early 90's.(slow from 90-94, picks up from 95-2000)..then more growth all the way through 2007...then you see the decline. I am sure 3rd and 4th quarter data for 2009 will continue the decline in average home prices. My prediction: we will begin the next decade with limited growth, possibly the most limited growth since the 1930's 46% decline, but growth nonetheless. This is national data, and shows the pattern for the country as a whole. If you look at data from specific regions (I will spare you)you can see some areas experienced too much growth from 1995-2007 and will compensate (Florida, Las Vegas to name a few), and some areas experienced too little growth and will not be hit as hard, (some small towns in the midwest and places in the south to name a few) ....I am not an expert by any means, I have no education or background in macro economics, and I tend to see the financial world through real estate (in conjunction with the market index) because it is the most common form of investment in our society. I believe it to be a window to whats going on with common folk, and so my opinion on when the recession will be over is based on what I see in the real estate world.

I believe the recession will be over when we stop showing a national decline in average home prices.....meaning most regions of the country show growth, not just some areas.

All that being said, I do believe that our economy did need this adjustment period, but what we do not need is a full blown depression. I am praying that we can see some jobs created in the private sector. (thank you Mr. Pres. for the 30,000 you created)

Also, look at the recovery period between 1940 and 1950... we can take comfort in the fact that as bad as it gets, our nation recovered handsomely the following decade, and I know we will do that again....

So what are your feelings, when do you think the recession will be over??